“CC-BY-4.0: © European Union 2023– Source: EP”
Ursula Von der Leyen and her Commissioners have survived the hearings in the European Parliament and have started their new roles. As promised, the confirmation hearings provided some drama, but it is especially the political game of chicken between the big parliamentary groups afterwards, which will cast a long shadow in the years ahead.
The haggling over the Hungarian candidate Commissioner Várhelyi could still be discounted as politics as usual: being backed by Viktor Orbàn, having a rather aggressive-conservative image and having established – to put it candidly – “a complicated relationship” with the European Parliament over the last five years, is not the best starting point for a smooth confirmation process.
The tug of war over the confirmation of Italy’s Rafaelle Fitto as Executive Vice-President and the humiliating conditions imposed on Spanish Executive Vice-President Tereza Ribeira, did not only bring an ideological divide to the forefront but also added national politics to the mix.
Manfred Weber and the EPP have called the bluff of Social Democrats and Reform alike and did not blink first. The former grand coalition is hanging by a thread and the ECR is an giant step closer to becoming a mainstream group like the others.
EPPs willingness to shop around for support for their agenda (within limits) means that the European Parliament will be much more unpredictable and a fertile hunting ground for lobbyists and concerned stakeholders alike.
Also in the European Council, the power balance is not set in stone – with unstable governments in Germany, France and the Netherlands, Belgium still procrastinating and elections in Central and Eastern Europe strengthening the Euro-critical camp, some feel like Europe is lacking clear leadership at a moment it needs it most. The new President of the European Council António Costa, and the incoming Polish Council Presidency have their work cut out, even if their respective predecessors, Charles Michel and Hungary did not exactly leave a lasting impression.
That puts a lot of pressure on the incoming EU Commission, which is scheduled to present her Work Programme for 2025 in February. That will already reveal where the new Commission will focus its priorities, which policy shifts can be expected and how Europe will try to address the challenges ahead. According to well informed insiders Von der Leyen II will want present within the first 100 days among others a plan for a Clean Industrial Deal to address the economic challenges and address the ecological transition, a White Paper on the future of the European Defence and a Critical Medicines Act. Across the Atlantic a key eye will be kept out for the rumoured AI factories Initiative. US Simplification Czar Musk will certainly have a look at the EU “Omnibus Simplification Regulation”, although it will probably not qualify in his books as adequate.
At SoWhatCommunications, we continue to follow this closely, if you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out.