Outside the EU Bubble, all eyes and columns inches are on Trump vs Harris. In a campaign that has featured pets on the dinner menu, billionaires promising voters $1 million payouts and accusations of China, Russia and even the UK’s mild-mannered PM, Kier Starmer, trying to subvert US politics, it’s questionable if there’s room for anything else in the news, or for that matter our fevered brains?
The answer to that question is, yes there is. In fact, the real drama is about to unfold in Brussels this week when every self-respecting political obsessive will be glued to the spectacle of candidates for the next European Commission being taunted, tenderised and grilled in hearings organised by the European Parliament.
What used to be a formality has in recent years become a high-stakes blood sport. It has also become a hugely important moment for anyone with an interest in the future direction of EU regulation to get a sense of where power really resides in the Parliament and what to expect from the incoming Commission.
SoWhat happens in the hearings?
Before answering this question, let’s just back up a little to see what candidates for the Commission must do to get this far.
STEP 1: How to get accepted and vetted
Commissioners relinquish any allegiance to their country, but to get nominated in the first place they must be recommended by their own government, which puts forward two names. You then must be picked by Commission President Von der Leyen, who also decides on your portfolio and provides you with a Mission Letter, basically a detailed job description. At this point, you need to start revising hard for what will be an aggressive, possibly humiliating, interview process.
STEP 2: Written and oral exams
The exam papers and interviews are drafted (and marked) by the European Parliament. First comes the written test, which seeks to evaluate overall fitness – no major scandals, no conflicts of interest, no outward signs of insanity etc…. Crucially, MEPs want to gauge your knowledge on the brief, but the written answers also help MEPs to hone their questions and sharpen their attack lines for the hearings.
By this stage the Brussels rumour mill is working full speed, fuelled by speculation on the runners and riders, the candidates that will sail through – and the ones who could crash and burn. This is the point at which Brussels politicos reach for the popcorn, lean forward in their seats and wait for the spectacle to unfold.
By now every candidate should be fully briefed by a crack team of top Commission advisers and ready to go toe-to-toe with the Parliamentary Committee that they would, if selected, work with over the coming term. This is where it gets tricky. The interview panel will be far from neutral, will undoubtedly disagree with each other and, because they are ambitious politicians, will use the opportunity to turn these televised hearings into a platform for their own careers.
STEP 3: To be or not to be
Step 3 is composed of 3 possible outcomes:
- The Commissioner designate does well, gets approved and waits for this to be finalised by a parliamentary vote in late November.
- The Commissioner designate flunks the hearings so badly that their sponsoring government pulls them off the pitch, sends them home and brings on a substitute.
- The third, less humiliating, option is reserved for candidates who mess up the interview process but not badly enough to be substituted. In this case, they can be relegated to a less challenging portfolio, or have certain competencies removed from their brief.
SoWho calls the shots – who holds the power?
In short, the Parliament. Over the years, the Parliament has used this opportunity to flex its muscles, give the Commission a bloody nose and try to set the terms of engagement for the next five years. Within this, most of the power resides with Committee Chairs, who orchestrate the hearing process, but also liaise closely with the Conference of the Presidents (President of the Parliament and the leaders of each political group). This group of MEPs will ultimately decide which Commission candidates pass, which get a second chance and who gets asked to leave.
Following the last elections, the European Peoples Party (EPP) is yet again the dominant force and is not afraid to throw its weight around. We can expect the Commission to receive the support of the traditional coalition of EPP, Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Liberal Renew, but that does not mean it will be plain sailing. The last election has changed the equation, and on subjects such as asylum policy, farming reform and the Green deal the EPP might align itself with the Conservative ECR group, and even the populist Patriots grouping and the Far Right Sovereignists (ESN) to push its own agenda.
It’s also worth noting the order in which the hearings will take place, with the first Commissioner designates testing the political water temperature to determine how other candidates will fare further into the hearing process. It’s no coincidence that the most important candidate for S&D, Vice-President designate Mrs Ribera, will be held back to the last hearing, whilst ECR candidate Vice-President Mr Fitto could get a potential pass much earlier. This could be seen as the other more conservative groups hedging their bets to ensure that the S&D group toes the line when vetting their candidates.
SoWhat difference does it make?
These hearings are far more than political theatre, they road test individual Commissioners and sense check the Commission’s work programme for the coming years. It’s also a crucial moment for democratic accountability, when the newly elected Parliament gets to send a powerful signal about what their voters will and will not accept.
If your organisation needs to interact with the EU Institutions or any part of the EU agenda over the next five years, events over the next two weeks can give you a good handle on what to expect.
This incoming Commission has an unenviable list of wicked problems to face. It will contend with conflicts of ideology and big decisions on the choice of priorities. Over the next two weeks we will find out how the Commission plans to deal with all of this, we will see if the Commissioner designates are up to the task, and we will get a glimpse of how this new Parliament plans to handle itself.
SoWhat will happen?
It’s too soon to predict, but we should get ready for some fireworks from a Parliament with a new composition and the sense of a significantly different and more populist mandate from the last elections. In the last three Commission terms, at least one candidate failed to make it across the line and had to be substituted. We should expect delays and wrangling, but we will also glean useful insights as to how this new Commission and Parliament will work in the coming years. It might not be as dramatic as election night on CNN, but it will not be boring, and it will have long-term implications for businesses across Europe and around the globe.
The team at SWC will be following all the twists and turns and will be offering the full suite of tools and intelligence updates to clients as this process unfolds.
Get in touch if you want to know more.
Andrew Cave & Olivier Hinnekens
4 November 2024