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Bart De Wever’s first assignment as new Belgian prime minister was attending the informal EU defence summit this week.  The prime ministers of two of the Baltic states, also waiting for the press, were the first people who approached him with the question: so who are you?

It’s a question that many European leaders will be asking themselves. The brand new Belgian prime minister is a Flemish nationalist, now in charge of the biggest round of budget cuts, labour market and pension reforms since Jean-Luc Dehaene had to get Belgium into the Euro in the 1990s.  And all this to save a country most of his party base has – to put it mildly – a conflicted relation with and would like to split off from. 

Until recently, he was unpalatable for the French speaking part of the country and the current Brussels government formation has reached a stalemate because of the refusal of the Parti Socialiste to even consider accepting his N-VA party as a coalition partner in the Brussels government.

But the elections of June last year reshuffled the Belgian political cards significantly.  De Wever got credit in the whole of Belgium by holding of the rise of the Flemish extreme right in the federal elections and stopping the rise of the extreme left in the battle for the city of Antwerp during the local elections.

The federal and regional elections were won by the centre-right parties across both linguistic regions and rapidly regional governments in Wallonia and Flanders were formed.  The expectation was that the parties forming those regional governments would also inevitably join forces in a federal five party-coalition between N-VA (Flemish Nationalists), CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats), Vooruit (Flemish Socialists), MR (French speaking Liberals) and Les Engagés (French speaking Christian Democrats).  The “signal of the voters” was clear and everybody agreed that Bart De Wever had to take the lead and quickly form a new government to address the significant challenges Belgium is facing.

Well, this is Belgium after all…This “only” ranks as the third-longest government formation talks in the country’s history, trailing behind the 541-day deadlock impasse of 2010-2011 and the 652-day stalemate following the 2019 elections.  The complexities of Belgium’s fragmented political system made the coalition-building a real struggle, yet again.  The new government is ideologically very diverse with the Flemish socialists of Vooruit feeling quite uncomfortable in a more economically right wing oriented coalition.  On the other hand, the Walloon liberals as one of the clear winners of the elections wanted to make sure that the government agreement reflected sufficiently their ideological concerns, now they finally managed to take the upper hand in Wallonia and Brussels over the Parti Socialiste relegating them to federal opposition. This ideological rift has compelled the partners to painstakingly spell out their new government agreement in a very detailed 202 page document, laying down black on white the compromises they reached on the future policy, thus ensuring cohesion within the ideological diversity in the coalition. Previous coalition governments have collapsed due to internal disagreements and any sign of serious discord could jeopardize its stability, still a high risk given the political polarization within the country.

The current agreement, which is pretty ambitious in Belgian terms, should offer an adequate response to the EU’s expectations of serious structural reforms to tackle Belgium’s mounting public debt (among the highest in the EU) and flagging economy as well as the increasing geopolitical concerns. The centrepiece of the new government agreement is an ambitious agenda of fiscal and socio-economic policy reforms aiming at a redress of the country’s public finances. The envisaged measures include amongst others significant budget cuts, tax reforms including a new capital gains tax, pension reforms, time limits on unemployment benefits and stricter migration policies.

De Wever is not a complete unknown to all the EU leaders gathering regularly in Brussels.  NATO Chief Mark Rutte found it necessary to point out that De Wever had big shoes to fill in replacing his predecessor Alexander De Croo at the European scene, but it would be very wrong to underestimate him. 

With De Wever the ECR adds another government leader to its ranks and finds its position strengthened inside the European Council.  The Belgian government will not change overnight from pro-European to Eurosceptic, but will more likely sometimes shift to the camp of the more critical member states, a clear break with some of the previous Belgian leaders who were positioning themselves as masters of compromise and experts in people pleasing.  Bart De Wever will not be auditioning during four years in the hope to land a European top job. And his political intelligence, in depth understanding of dossiers, strategic insights and rapier sharp wit, will serve him well in becoming very quickly a voice around the table to be reckoned with.

And off course he did not come with empty hands to the summit.  Belgium has been hiding in plain sight for many years when it comes to meeting its NATO’s Defence spending targets of 2% of GDP, falling well short. Still, amidst a long list of cost-saving pledges, the new coalition also found room for gradual increased military expenditures over the coming years. Investments will focus on air defence systems for strategic infrastructures such as the port of Antwerp, cybersecurity, drones and additional fighter jets. Despite Belgium’s precarious financial situation, the new coalition agreed to be creative in finding new resources without further burdening the Belgian budget.  It is planning to sell off / privatize some government assets and sell parts of its investment portfolio to fund a newly set up Belgian defence fund, which it hopes the EU Commission will sign off on.

The president of the French speaking liberals would like to land in March –  that is already a start… the King has scolded the Brussels politicians to take their responsibility last night… Let’s hope somebody listens. The world-record for procrastination is only some 400 days ahead…

Written by Olivier Hinnekens and Pierre Deraedt